ETH market experiences severe fluctuations: A short-term miracle under macroeconomic easing and technical resonance.

Event Review 📝

In just one hour, ETH experienced significant volatility, rapidly climbing from a consolidation range at 06:00 in the morning to a short-term high at 07:05, before some profit-taking caused the price to fall back to around $2495. The market was driven not only by signals of macroeconomic easing policies, such as Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, but also accompanied by a large influx of institutional funds and the release of positive technical signals. Traders observed from the data that the entry of institutional funds, operations by whale investors, and even the rapid rise of DeFi protocol TVL all provided solid support for ETH's short-term price increase.

Timeline ⏱

06:00: The market starts buying, with ETH prices hovering around the 2429–2430 range. The KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50 indicate the initial emergence of bullish sentiment.

06:10: Signals of macroeconomic easing have emerged on social media, conveying a narrative of "risk on," which has stimulated buying sentiment for risk assets.

06:29: Some practical traders begin to deploy long positions on ETH, with market buying power clearly concentrated.

06:36: The news that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 81.9% has been released, regulatory risks have eased, and market optimism has increased.

06:38: The market capitalization of ETH has increased to 9.09%, indicating that both institutional and retail funds are entering the market, further intensifying the buying effect.

06:46: The price rapidly climbed from around 2429 to 2506, with an increase of 3.15% within 46 minutes, driven by strong buying momentum pushing the market upward.

06:47: ETH successfully broke through the $2500 mark, and short-term technical signals are further strengthening.

07:05: Driven by continuous buying, the ETH price reached 2524, demonstrating a strong short-term trend.

07:15: With the profit-taking phenomenon occurring, the ETH price has adjusted down to about 2494.99, temporarily marking the end of the volatility phase.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The sharp fluctuations in the current ETH market are due to the combined effects of multiple factors:

Macroeconomic policy easing: Recently, signals have emerged from the U.S. market, with Trump calling for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, coupled with the Fed Chairman's statements about economic uncertainty, leading the market to ease concerns about regulatory risks. Especially under the expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, investors' interest in risk assets has significantly increased.

Institutional capital inflow: On-chain data and exchanges show that recently, whale funds and institutional-level recharge funds are continuously flowing into the ETH market. At the same time, the increasing TVL of DeFi protocols such as BlackRock BUIDL also proves the market ecosystem's vitality and the increase of institutional involvement.

Market sentiment improves: Technical indicators (such as KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50) are signaling buy opportunities, coupled with positive discussions on social media regarding risk alleviation, leading to a rapid accumulation of short-term buying pressure and resulting in an explosive market movement.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on the 45-minute candlestick data of the Binance USDT perpetual contract, we can see:

Price Trend and Bollinger Bands: The price is running along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward trend in the short term; however, the price approaching the upper band means the market is in an overbought state, presenting a risk of a short-term pullback.

Indicator signals: The KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50 both indicate a buy signal, driving bullish sentiment; however, the extreme overbought J value and the OBV indicator turning from positive to negative suggest that the market may experience some profit-taking and panic selling.

Trading volume and liquidation situation: Trading volume has surged significantly (up 250.94% compared to the 10-day average), indicating that market trading is exceptionally active. In addition, the total liquidation amount across the network is nearly ten million dollars, with short positions accounting for as much as 91%, showing that the market's long and short competition is exceptionally fierce, indicating that the volatility risk in the future cannot be ignored.

Moving Average Arrangement: The price of ETH is currently above the MA5, MA10, MA20, and EMA series moving averages. The bullish arrangement has established a strong upward trend in the short term, but the technical overbought indicators also require vigilance for the emergence of pullback signals.

Market Outlook 🚀

Currently, ETH has strengthened in the short term due to multiple positive signals, but there is still a pullback pressure in the short term.

If the price can stabilize above the EMA24 and EMA52 moving averages, it may continue to attract institutional interest, driving further increases; however, at the same time, the overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and J indicator suggest a risk of profit taking.

On a macro level, the direction of U.S. policy remains uncertain, and any slight changes could affect market sentiment. Investors need to pay attention to subsequent Federal Reserve policies and related macro data.

From a technical perspective, although the current buying pressure is strong, the surge in trading volume and liquidation data remind us that the market's long-short contest may intensify in a short period. Investors should remain cautious and manage their positions wisely.

Overall, the short-term market for ETH is characterized by a mix of surprises and risks. For medium to short-term investors, paying close attention to technical indicators and changes in trading volume, as well as closely monitoring updates in macro policies, will help better grasp the timing for entering and exiting positions. Rational operations and quantitative risk control are the wise moves in the face of a highly volatile market.