Recently, the market's expectations for a Fed interest rate cut have continued to rise, and this anticipation has become a major factor supporting the market. Last Friday, the speech by the Fed Chairman further heightened expectations for a rate cut in September. However, have we considered a critical question: what will happen if the Fed ultimately decides not to cut rates?

Currently, the market seems to have reached a consensus that interest rate cuts are inevitable. This consistency might actually become the biggest risk. If the Fed takes a tough stance to demonstrate its independence and refuses to cut rates, or even raises them, market sentiment could change dramatically, leading to severe fluctuations.

It is worth noting that once the interest rate cut good news materializes, the market will face a dilemma of lacking new momentum. In this case, if the policy turns to interest rate hikes, it could quickly open the door to a bear market, leading to a significant decline in asset prices.

However, many investors in the market are still immersed in the fantasy of a perpetual bull market, anticipating that Bitcoin will break through $200,000 by the end of the year and Ethereum will break through $10,000. This overly optimistic expectation precisely reflects the fragility of the market.

As rational investors, we need to objectively analyze market conditions and not be blinded by consensus expectations. At the same time, we must recognize that it is the existence of differing opinions in the market that creates abundant trading opportunities and price volatility.

In the current situation, it is particularly important to maintain a cautious attitude and manage risks effectively. Regardless of how the Fed ultimately decides, we should be prepared to handle various possibilities rather than relying solely on the hope of interest rate cuts.