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BTC weekly big dump of 14.39% due to concerns over a recession in the US stock market leading to large-scale ETF redemptions.
BTC Weekly Pullback, Market Worried About US Economic Outlook
This week, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, opening at $94265 and finally closing at $80699, with a weekly decline of 14.39% and a volatility of 15.29%. Although the trading volume decreased compared to last week, it remained at a relatively high level.
In the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market has experienced significant fluctuations. On one hand, the US stock market has retraced its previous gains due to concerns about an economic recession, leading to large-scale redemptions of Bitcoin spot ETFs. On the other hand, the US policy level has sent positive signals regarding the regulation and application of crypto assets, and Texas has also passed a state-level Bitcoin reserve bill, indicating that the policy environment for crypto assets in the US is improving.
However, in the short term, investor sentiment dominated the price trend. This week, Bitcoin plunged 14.39%, marking the second largest weekly decline in this cycle, breaking through multiple important support levels. The market fear sentiment index also dropped to an "extreme fear" level.
The non-farm payroll data released on Friday showed that the U.S. job market is further slowing down, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.1%. The Federal Reserve Chair then expressed a cautious stance, stating that there is currently no need to rush to adjust interest rate policies, but if economic indicators worsen, a rate cut will be considered. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 75 basis points this year.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar index fell 3.52% throughout the week. US stocks rebounded on Friday, but the overall trend remains pessimistic, and future performance will depend on the direction of economic data.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently operating below the first trend line of the bull market and has formed a descending channel. It dipped again on Sunday evening below the 200-day moving average. The market is currently in an oversold state in the short term, but it may require more time and external conditions to reverse the downward trend.
On-chain data shows that selling pressure has eased this week, but buying power remains insufficient. The overall floating profit rate in the market is 198%, with long-term holders having a floating profit of 347%, while short-term holders are still in a floating loss of 6%.
In terms of capital flow, the overall net inflow in the cryptocurrency market this week was $1.295 billion, with stablecoins inflowing $2.107 billion, but Bitcoin spot ETFs still had a net outflow of $719 million. In February, 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. experienced the largest redemption of $2.3 billion since their approval, and the outflow trend has slowed down in March but is still ongoing.
Overall, the short-term trend of Bitcoin prices will still be constrained by the performance of the US stock market, and does not yet have the conditions to strengthen independently. Market attention will be focused on US economic data and policy direction.