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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (08.01 - 08.08)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $3.579 trillion, a week-on-week decrease of 7.9%. Exchange trading volume fell by 5.2% to $1.8 trillion. The price of Bitcoin dropped by 4%, hitting a low of $98,839.87. Powell's hawkish remarks suppressed buying in the crypto market, leading to a liquidation of $843 million across the network, with the dominant trend being downward.
According to the Gate Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is Greed, with an index of 74, up from 62 yesterday. Overall, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and investor sentiment is trending towards Greed.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing. The U.S. CPI in May rose by 4.0% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.1%, but still at a high level. The final CPI year-on-year value for the Eurozone in May was 6.1%, higher than the expected 6.0%. Against the backdrop of persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation expectations. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market expects a 72.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in September.
The Producer Price Index ( PPI ) and the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) are high, reflecting that cost pressures are being transmitted downstream. In May, the PPI in the United States rose by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 1.5%. In the Eurozone, the May PPI year-on-year rate was 4.1%, down from the previous value of 5.1%. The Purchasing Managers' Index ( PMI ) indicates that activities in the manufacturing and service sectors are slowing down. In May, the manufacturing PMI in the United States was 46.9, remaining in the contraction zone for the seventh consecutive month. The Eurozone's composite PMI for May was 52.8, a slight decline from April.
Overall, high inflation, slowing economic growth, and expectations of interest rate hikes will continue to put pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Investors need to closely monitor changes in the macroeconomic situation.
1.3 Financial Calendar
This week, focus on the US July CPI and retail sales data. The CPI is an important indicator of inflation levels, and it is expected that the annual rate will remain at a high level. Retail sales data reflect consumer spending conditions, which have a significant impact on economic growth. In addition, US crude oil inventories and PPI data are also worth paying attention to.
Overall, the macroeconomic data released this week will provide the latest signals about the state of the U.S. economy, and investors need to closely monitor the impact of this data on inflation expectations and monetary policy.
2. Analysis of Capital Flow and Price Volatility
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC from August 1 to August 8, 2025, the volatility of BTC this week is 1.23%.
Price Fluctuation and Reasons
This week, the BTC price fluctuated between $114,000 and $118,000. The price increase was mainly due to continued buying from institutional investors and the robust development of the Bitcoin network. The price drop was influenced by some profit-taking activities.
Impact of Trading Volume Changes This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC is approximately 25 million coins, a decrease compared to last week. The reduction in trading volume may temporarily suppress price fluctuations, but if significant positive or negative news emerges, it could still trigger sharp volatility.
Market Activity and Price Direction Despite a decrease in trading volume, Bitcoin's on-chain activity remains at a high level. Continued institutional buying behavior also indicates an optimistic sentiment in the market regarding Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Therefore, in the short term, Bitcoin's price may maintain a pattern of oscillating upward.
2.2. Capital Market Analysis
According to the latest fund flow data, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a net inflow trend over the past week, with a total net inflow amount reaching $548 million. This indicates that institutional investors and large holders are continuously entering the Bitcoin market. At the same time, the outflow amount is also significant, reflecting that some investors are taking profits.
Ethereum ( ETH ) capital flow data shows a slight net outflow recently. However, the activity level of the Ethereum ecosystem remains high, with new applications in DeFi, NFTs, and others continually emerging, which is expected to bring new capital inflows to Ethereum.
Algorithm Coin ( ALGO ) Capital Flow data shows that the net inflow amount in the past week was $23.3 million, and the capital situation remains stable. ALGO, as a cryptocurrency that supports smart contracts, is gradually gaining more attention.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is quite active, with major currencies showing a positive funding situation, which is conducive to stabilizing and rising prices. However, investors should also be wary of the risks of significant market fluctuations.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. By analyzing changes in large order transaction volumes, we can gain insight into the movements of institutional funds.
BTC Large Order Analysis: Recently, the trading volume of large BTC orders has shown bi-directional fluctuations, but overall, long positions slightly dominate. This indicates that institutional funds are gradually building positions and remain optimistic about the future market. However, selling pressure cannot be ignored, and BTC is expected to move upward amidst fluctuations.
ETH Large Order Analysis: In the large order trading volume of ETH, long positions dominate, indicating that institutional funds are continuing to flow in. This trend may further drive up the price of ETH. However, one must also be wary of the risk of large holders taking profits.
Altcoin Analysis: The trading volume of altcoins has shown differentiation, with some popular coins like SOL and MATIC attracting a large influx of institutional funds, while some smaller coins have faced capital outflows. This pattern of differentiation may persist for a while.
Overall, smart money is gradually increasing its stakes in mainstream cryptocurrencies, indicating the continuation of a bull market. However, it is also important to be aware of the risks of profit-taking. Investors can participate moderately based on their own risk preferences.
3. Hot Topics
Altcoin recovery! The second wave of altcoin rise is coming, potential gains of 30%+
The rebound of altcoins has started again, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above 50
The altcoin market is showing significant recovery, with Alt In rebounding sharply from 13 in May to 45. Bitcoin's dominance seems to be weakening, and the momentum of altcoins is beginning to recover. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) has recently broken above 50, marking a key shift in sentiment.
Although the market has not yet fully entered the altcoin season, the conditions are gradually deviating from Bitcoin's control. Speculative demand is rising, and technical patterns suggest that a second wave of altcoin rallies may be forming—potentially bringing over 30% returns for specific assets.
According to the technical analysis model from CoinDesk Research, the following altcoins are showing signs of accumulation and potential continuation setups:
The Positive Factors for the Rise of Altcoins
"The main driving force behind the rebound of altcoins comes from investors questioning the dominance of Bitcoin." said Vivien Zhang, a senior analyst at CoinDesk Research. "As speculative demand rises, investors are looking for opportunities with higher risk-reward potential."
Zhang added, "Although the current technical setup has not fully confirmed the arrival of the altcoin season, some leading altcoins have already shown positive signs. If this trend continues, we may see a second wave of altcoin rallies, bringing potential gains of over 30%."
David Grider, the head of digital assets at FundStrat Global Advisors, is also optimistic about the prospects of altcoins. He stated: "Bitcoin's dominance is weakening, which presents opportunities for altcoins. We are seeing funds flowing into some attractive altcoin projects."
Risk Warning
Despite the positive outlook, investing in altcoins still carries certain risks. CoinDesk Research analyst Zhang warns: "The altcoin market is often highly volatile, and investors need to exercise caution. We advise investors to diversify their investments and manage their risk exposure carefully."
Grider also reminded that: "Altcoins often carry the characteristics of high risk and high return. Investors need to conduct thorough due diligence on projects to understand potential risks."
4. Major Events
Here is a summary of the Top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days:
Inflation exceeds expectations
BNB rises and then falls
XRP balance is precarious
Advice for Beginners from VC
Dogecoin Analyst Prediction
Crypto Tax Reminder
SoFi stock price rises
Tokenization growth slows
Cryptocurrency market generally retracing
MYX Volatility
PUMP rebound
AI Sector Slightly Declines
Layer2 sector rises
Increase in Bitcoin Options Demand
5. Global Policies
Here are the new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry from August 1 to August 8, 2025, along with an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:
US Senator Expresses Concerns About Chinese AI Company DeepSeek
Description: A group of Republican lawmakers led by Senator Ted Budd is urging the U.S. government to launch a formal investigation into the Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek. They are concerned that its open-source AI model R1 may leak sensitive data of U.S. users and could potentially assist the Chinese military or surveillance operations.
Impact Analysis: If investigations reveal security vulnerabilities in DeepSeek's AI model, it could lead the U.S. government to impose restrictions preventing the company from operating in the United States. This may intensify the competition and confrontation between China and the U.S. in the field of artificial intelligence.
The US SEC Allows Creation and Redemption of Physical Crypto ETPs
Description: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) allows cryptocurrency exchanges to trade products ( ETP ) for physical creation and redemption. This means that issuers can use actual cryptocurrencies instead of cash to create and redeem ETP shares.
Impact Analysis: This move is beneficial for the development of crypto ETPs, making it easier to obtain liquidity and providing better investment tools for investors. This may encourage institutional investors to further participate in the cryptocurrency market.
Thailand and Cambodia engage in negotiations over recent border conflict
Description: Thailand and Cambodia are negotiating over the recent most severe border clashes, trying to ease the tensions. The Trump administration had threatened to impose sanctions on Cambodia.
Impact Analysis: If the conflict escalates, it may affect the regional economy and financial stability, which in turn impacts the cryptocurrency market. Peace negotiations are beneficial for maintaining regional stability and creating a favorable environment for the development of the cryptocurrency market.
Summary
Overall, the above political dynamics and policies mainly focus on the following aspects:
Overall, these policies and regulations reflect the regulators' strengthening of oversight over the cryptocurrency market, while also providing more investment tools for institutional investors. Geopolitical risks remain an uncertain factor. The industry needs to closely monitor policy trends and seize development opportunities.
6. Investment Analysis
( 6.1. Investment Recommendation
Market trends indicate that cryptocurrency projects related to artificial intelligence and machine learning are gaining significant attention. Additionally, with the clarification of regulatory policies, compliance and privacy protection have become key considerations for investors. Based on the current situation, the following 5 cryptocurrencies have substantial growth potential.
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Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risks; please make decisions cautiously.
( 6.2 Investment Strategy
Technical Analysis of Popular Tokens This Week
LINK surged 9.78% this week, with trading volume skyrocketing by 138.84%. The price broke through the $17 barrier and maintained a strong position, with hourly closing prices confirming higher highs, indicating buyer dominance. BCH rose by 1.86%, with trading volume increasing by 122.1%. The price steadily moved upwards, remaining above $575, showing continued accumulation in the short term. HBAR climbed by 4.88%, and despite a decrease in trading volume, it still maintained an upward momentum, continuing the bullish trend during the closing session.
Summary: The three tokens mentioned above performed strongly this week, supported by trading volume and trend data, reflecting bullish market sentiment.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-2f5b163283-153d09-1c6801.webp###
Quantitative Strategy Summary
The performance of quantitative trading bots on Gate this week has been quite impressive overall. The grid trading strategy utilized the moderate volatility of BTC/USDT, achieving a return of 8.5%. The trend-following strategy profited 12.2% from the large volatility in ETH/USDT. The moving average strategy and arbitrage strategy earned 6.8% and 3.2% returns respectively on the BNB/USDT and USDT cross currency pairs. Although the options selling strategy carries higher risks, it also achieved a considerable return of 18.6%.
Summary: Quantitative strategies play a role in different market conditions, providing investors with a diversified way to participate.
( 6.3. Financial management products
Yubi Treasure
Yubi Bao helps to match users with idle assets to those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yubi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successfully issued and the interest rate for that hour based on the user-set lending rate and actual borrowing demand at every whole hour. Successful loans can earn interest for that hour. However, users who fail to borrow due to setting the interest rate too high and those who redeem funds before the whole hour determination will not receive interest.
The total investment amount of USDT in Yubi Bao is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-2e0af59844-153d09-1c6801.webp###
Wealth Management Treasure
Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate, including current, fixed, and other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of types of digital currency financial products.
Structured Finance
Gate structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. The settlement yield level is generally determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period with a specified reference price, and it can be divided into two types: capital-protected and aggressive.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by third parties and may have latency; it is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own assessment before making any investment decisions.
( 6.4. Technical Analysis
)# Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. According to the Bollinger Band trading strategy, when the ETH price approaches or breaks the upper band, a sell action is taken with a position size of 20%; when the ETH price approaches or breaks the lower band, a buy action is taken with a position size of 20%. The initial capital is 100,000 USDT.
Backtesting the historical data of ETH according to this trading strategy, the backtest results are as follows:
Backtest Result Analysis
In terms of yield, this strategy achieved a positive return of 36.72% during the backtesting period, which is quite ideal.
The maximum drawdown rate is 18.35%, which falls under a medium risk level and requires investors to have a certain degree of risk tolerance.
The annualized volatility reaches 28.64%, indicating significant fluctuations and higher operational difficulty.
Advantages
Disadvantages
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy has certain reference value for ETH operations, but it also needs to be combined with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to improve the accuracy and return of trades. Investors also need to make appropriate adjustments based on their own risk preferences and financial strength during actual operations.