Looking at the encryption market from the data on the multi-dimensional BNB Chain: is it on the eve of a bull market?

After the tightening of macro policies, FTX; and other encryption institutions exploded one after another, the encryption market has been sluggish, and we have been in a bear market for too long.

Although no one can accurately predict the direction of the market, judging from the recent data indicators of global policies, industry hotspots, and ecological activity, the market is recovering, sentiment is gradually returning, and we may be in the transition stage of the beginning of the bear tail .

Admittedly, "seeking the sword" from historical experience may not be completely accurate, but there are always many first-hand and real revelations in the data on the chain, which can help us judge opportunities and make investment decisions: Which projects will perish after the reshuffle period of survival of the fittest , which projects have been tested and radiate new vitality.

BNB Chain DEX; the trading volume is recovering, and it is coming out of the haze of the bear market

Taking various public chains as an example, the various L1s that flourished in the bull market have gradually become silent in the deep bear market, and some of them have even approached decline, and there is no real activity on the chain. The data shows that the data of BNB Chain; not only has recently recovered, but also become more prosperous.

With the development of the overall market trend, many activities on the chain have also begun to recover from the slump. When we compare multiple public chains, what about their status? We may be able to get a glimpse of the future direction from the current trend. From the perspective of the market share of "DEX" trading volume, DeFiLlama's data shows that the market share of BNB Chain has risen rapidly in the past two months. At present, it accounts for 22.3% of the total "DEX" market, and is the second largest public chain in transaction volume, second only to Ethereum.

The green part is the share of BNB Chain

As of the publication of this article, BNB Chain's; DEX; 7; total daily transaction volume (5; month; 23; day to; 5; month; 30; day) is about; 5 billion; DEX; the total transaction volume is only; 5.6; billion US dollars.

This can be said to be the champion. At present, the total daily transaction volume of all public chains "DEX" included in "DeFiLlama" is about "14.7; billion US dollars, and the top two public chains, whether it is Ethereum or "BNB Chain", its "DEX" ;Trading volume data alone is enough to exceed the sum of all remaining public chains.

With the growth of users and frequent interactions, activities on the chain have returned

In addition to "DEX" transactions, taking advantage of the low "gas" cost of the bear market, various interactions have become a compulsory course for players on the chain in the bear market. If we examine the number of transactions on the chain, what conclusions will we draw?

As can be seen from the figure above, with the bear market, BNB Chain; the number of transactions has declined. It reached a low point at the beginning of this year, but then gradually recovered. In the near future, the number of its "Tx" has returned to the level at the end of last year, and the activity on the chain is not low, and it is still showing obvious signs of rising.

There are many reasons for the recovery of its on-chain activity. If observed from the number of users, the result seems to be more obvious.

Tokenterminal; data shows that the number of daily active users of BNB Chain; has been rising recently, and is currently about; 1.4 million; In the second half of last year, this figure still remained at less than 1 million; around 10,000.

According to the current data, the number has increased by nearly half compared with a few months ago, and the activity of BNB;Chain; on the chain is constantly recovering.

If you refer to the "big market" Ethereum mainnet on the chain, the data is more referable. Take the Ethereum mainnet as an example. As a "barometer" of activities on the chain, the activity of the mainnet has always been an important indicator of the prosperity of the encryption market. As for the number of daily active users of the main network, we can easily see from the trend in the figure that the number of main network users has been relatively stable in the past year, and there has been no upward trend in the near future.

Of course, the main network is a barometer of the overall market. Although it reflects the overall temperature of the market to a certain extent, the network’s competitive relationship with other public chains is not obvious.

With the general recovery of the market, all chains are ushering in recovery. We can use other chain data as a comparison.

Will Layer 2 seize the market share of BNB Chain?

With the end of the "new public chain" boom in the bull market, this year's market sentiment and on-chain activities have gradually shifted to "Layer; 2". Although technically speaking, the security is guaranteed by the Ethereum main network; Layer; 2; is technically more "orthodox", but in terms of user experience and user perception, Layer; 2; and; EVM; The difference is not big, and there is direct competition between the two.

Take "Arbitrum" as an example, its data performance has been tepid since the launch of its mainnet. After the large-scale airdrop of ARB tokens in March this year, activities on the chain became active rapidly.

In the middle of April, the number of Arbitrum's daily active users exceeded 320,000, reaching a peak in nearly a year. Except for individual peaks, the number of addresses on the airdrop chain has recently stabilized at around 200,000. Although it has grown significantly compared to before the airdrop, it still lags behind the "BNB Chain" which costs millions.

The same as "Layer; 2", the performance of the earlier "Optimism" airdrop is slightly different. In the past year, Optimism; daily active addresses have risen steadily. Although they have been much more active than last year, the number of daily active addresses at the peak was less than 100,000, which is still an order of magnitude behind the million-level data of "BNB Chain".

Layer;2;, while likely to dominate in "DeFi;"-dominated applications, is not yet widely adopted by the rest of the market at this stage. From the perspective of data alone, Layer 2; in the field of "EVM; it is still difficult to directly confront with "BNB Chain" in terms of data.

Stablecoin use cases are active, is it a sign of market recovery?

Regardless of whether it is bullish or bearish, the demand for stablecoin transactions will always exist. This is also an important transaction indicator that reflects whether transactions on the chain are active. Stablecoins can reflect the adoption rate of the network to a certain extent. With the accelerated adoption and popularity of the chain, the number and transaction volume of stablecoins on the chain will inevitably usher in growth.

Looking at the market in the past year, with the depression of the market, the market value of stable currency circulation has declined. DeFiLlama; data shows that the current market value of stablecoins in circulation has declined slightly, but the total "TVL" of stablecoins is still growing.

Previously, BUSD; had experienced regulatory turmoil. As a chain that has a certain correlation with "BUSD", the number of stable coins of BNB Chain; has also been affected to a certain extent, but it has not caused obvious changes. The data shows that at present, the circulation of stable coins on the "BNB Chain" chain has declined to a certain extent, but the number of "TVL" has remained relatively stable at around $6 billion.

From the perspective of currency distribution, at present, BNB Chain; the stable currency circulation on the chain is at least USDT, BUSD, USDC, USDD, and DAI. Although the amount has dropped sharply, "BUSD" is still the second largest stablecoin in circulation on the chain, with a market value of approximately; 1.5; billion U.S. dollars. The circulation market value of USDT, which ranks first, is about 3.3 billion U.S. dollars.

In terms of shares, the Ethereum mainnet and the "Tron" mainnet's stable currency shares combined to occupy the majority of shares. Due to various historical reasons, the vast majority of the stable currency market has always been held by these two companies.

However, the multi-chain in the stablecoin market is not static. In the last round of bull market, the melee of "new public chains" was unprecedented. At present, the bull-bear cycle has already passed, and the market is about to enter the next cycle. And when the tide recedes and the bear market is now, the market share of the stablecoin use case may be more representative.

At present, DeFiLlama; data show; BNB Chain; stable currency market value of approximately; 5.7; billion US dollars, accounting for stable currency purpose is; 4.39%. Although Ethereum and Tron; firmly hold the top two public chains in terms of market value of stable coins, the market value of stable coins of "BNB Chain" is still about the sum of the last three, which is equivalent to the sum of stable coins of "Arbitrum, Polygon, Solana" .

Hard fork, new storage chain, CEX; to build "another Binance"?

Currently, BNB ChainTVL; up to; 4.5; billion US dollars. It ranks third in the entire "DeFi" market, second only to the Ethereum mainnet and Tron. BNB Chain; as an old-fashioned "new public chain", although this project is no longer "novel", its ecology and projects are constantly prospering.

On May 22, The Block's data showed that the ratio of spot trading volume between DEX and CEX hit a record high, and DEX's proportion exceeded 20% for the first time. Meanwhile, CEX; cryptocurrency trading volumes are at an all-time low this year.

A prosperous "Layer; 1" network can build a more decentralized encryption ecosystem than "CEX".

In February of this year, after the reintegration of the BNB Chain, its structure can be compared to Ethereum. The BNB Beacon Chain (formerly Binance Chain) provides a secure technical bottom layer, and the BNB Smart Chain (Binance Smart Chain) has actually become the execution layer. . In its ecology, Dapp covers all tracks, including DeFi, SocialFi, NFT, GameFi, Metaverse, cross-chain, derivatives, infrastructure, etc., covering almost all areas of the chain world.

In February, BNB Chain released the BNB Greenfield white paper, and in early April, the test network "Congo" was launched. According to the latest news, the main network of BNB Greenfield will be launched in the third quarter of this year. Although it has not yet been launched, the birth of this new chain has also allowed us to see the further prosperity of the ecology on the BNB chain.

Although "BNB Greenfield" is still a brand new chain, its native storage function can provide "BNB Chain" with strong infrastructure support. This innovation may bring a large number of imaginative new use cases.

In the coming; June; 12;, BNB Chain; will also carry out "Luban" hard fork upgrade. This upgrade consists of three proposals: BEP-126, BEP-174; and; BEP-221;, aimed at creating a faster and more secure network for users.

BEP-126; introduces a "Fast Finality" mechanism that makes it impossible for a block to be reversed once it is finalized on the network, which will reduce the likelihood of chain reorganizations by bad actors.

BEP-174; proposes "cross-chain relay management" which aims to mitigate any potential security issues in the;BBSC Bridge;. BEP-221; proposed "CometBFT; light block verification", the contract helps to verify specific blocks from other; CometBFT; compatible blockchains, and enables data transfer between these blockchains.

Although the market is still relatively sluggish, due to its lower "gas" fee and always active ecology, BNB Chain; is still the bottom layer of user's preference in daily transactions.

In the encryption world, projects in the bull market are attracting much attention, but whether a project can pass through the bull-bear market will ultimately take the test of time. With the alternation of the market cycle in this round, how will the market structure change in the future?