As September Approaches, Will $ETH Face a Seasonal Pullback?

September is approaching, and Ethereum speculators are worried, as the ninth month of the year is often associated with the weakening of this second-ranked currency. With an average loss of -6.42% since 2016, September is the worst-performing month for Ethereum in most cycles. Ethereum Has Grown Strongly Thanks to the Boost from Institutions Ethereum has recently made remarkable progress, approaching its all-time high and injecting new vitality into the ETH community as well as many other cryptocurrencies. As of mid-August 2025, ETH is trading above $4,700, an increase of approximately 76% since the beginning of the year and about 25% just from the beginning of August, marking its best price performance since the bull run in 2021. Institutional capital is the main driving force behind the price increase of Ethereum, as spot ETH ETFs attracted nearly $3 billion in net inflows throughout August, pushing the price higher and revealing a new trend among institutional buyers. The adoption of corporate treasuries is also surging, with companies together accumulating over 17 billion in ETH reserves just this year, tightening supply and boosting the price momentum. Co-founder of Fundstrat and currently the chairman of BitMINE Immersion Technologies, Tom Lee has become the center of attention this year with his company's shift strategy towards Ethereum. In just over a month, BitMINE has accumulated the world's largest corporate Ethereum treasury, proudly holding over 6.6 billion USD in Ether to become the largest holder of Ether, surpassing even major investment and technology companies like ConsenSys. Macroeconomic conditions remain favorable as the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and improved global risk sentiment have contributed to greater interest from institutions. On-chain factors such as DeFi activities and protocol upgrades like Pectra have further reduced liquidity supply and encouraged long-term holding, creating strong incentives for the price performance of ETH. Has the Notorious Weakness of ETH in September Come to an End? However, as September approaches, rebalancing the portfolio after strong price increases during the summer, along with tax-related sell-offs, may help to ease the heat of summer. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trader Crypto Rover questioned the strange seasonality of Ethereum, posting: "September is usually a discount month for $ETH. Not just generally, but especially in the years following the halving." 2017: -21,65% 2021: -12,55% 2025: ??? What is your prediction? The price history of ETH shows a persistent and often very harsh September pattern. Since 2016, the gains of ETH in August are often erased in September. In 2017, ETH increased by 92% in August, then decreased by -21.65% in September, after China announced a ban on ICOs. In 2020, the price of Ether increased by about 25%, then decreased by 17% in September, and in August 2021, the price of Ether increased by about 35% and then decreased by 12% in September. Not Everyone is Pessimistic About ETH Despite this clear trend, not all analysts are pessimistic. Standard Chartered Bank recently forecasted that the price of ETH will reach $7,500 by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of $12,000 in 2026 and $18,000 in 2027. On August 13, 2025, Tom Lee told CNBC that he expects Ethereum to "continue to accelerate" with growth driven by ETF capital inflows and institutional adoption, pushing the price above $7,000 per coin. Although the data shows that ETH will face seasonal difficulties in September, especially after strong growth in August, if ETH can escape the September curse, a bullish Q4 will await.