250,000 jobs are a quick rebound? Is the CPI data inflated or toxic? Tariffs are a dull knife torturing the common people, while politicians profit and shout with joy!

The folks at the Federal Reserve are playing with expectations like they're juggling monkeys! Just when the market was ecstatic, thinking that a rate cut in September was a done deal and champagne was about to pop, Powell gets on stage and babbles a few words, and bam! The probability of a rate cut plummets! And it doesn't stop there; right after that, the non-farm payroll data delivers a heavy slap — the employment numbers for the past two months were slashed by over 250,000! That’s the worst record since the pandemic! "The U.S. economy is booming?" That’s a slap to the face! Riding this roller coaster is giving the elite on Wall Street heart attacks.

Just when everyone thought that a rate cut in September was as obvious as lice on a bald head, that guy Carpenter from Morgan Stanley poured a bucket of cold water: wake up, stop dreaming! That old fox Powell speaks in riddles, and Williams from the New York Fed chimed in, the core message is simple: whether there will be a rate cut in September depends on the "face" of the upcoming data! This week's CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the first obstacle! Everyone is fixated on a crucial question: why is the blood flowing so slowly from the big axe of tariffs that has long been swung down on prices?! It's driving people crazy!

In June, the CPI revealed a bit of the "tariff-inflated prices" fox's tail. But the tough guys at Morgan Stanley slammed the table: Don’t be intimidated by this little commotion! Have you forgotten the bloody lesson of 2018? Tariffs are toxic! But the process of their toxicity manifesting takes time, as short as three months, and as long as five months! Why? The global supply chain, this giant beast, after being struck, still has to struggle a bit and catch its breath before it collapses with a crash, completely unleashing the wolf of inflation!

Just before the new tariffs hit on August 1st like a heavy hammer, the "detectives" at Morgan Stanley almost stripped the supply chain bare. They uncovered a huge and incredibly ironic truth: the "official tax rate" that the government shouts about (over 15%) is light-years away from the actual "real money" collected (8.7% in May, 8.9% in June)! This is a slap in the face! Why is there such a big difference?

During the policy window period, people are frantically "smuggling": On the eve of the tariff implementation, importers are crazily stocking up, cramming in as much as they can! This batch of "duty-free" goods is temporarily holding off the impact of high prices, just fooling around!

Shipping is as slow as a turtle: Do you think the goods come by rocket? They are loaded onto ships from the other side of the Pacific, crossing the ocean, then into warehouses, and onto the shelves… The vegetables are already cold! What you buy in the supermarket now may still reflect the costs from last month’s world! The delay is driving people crazy!

The supply chain plays "the escape of the golden cicada": enterprises are not just waiting to be slaughtered! They are in a state of panic, desperately looking for new partners, either moving their factories to places that haven't been taxed (like exploiting loopholes in the USMCA), or changing suppliers. This large-scale relocation and changeover, can it not be chaotic? Can it not take time? Chaos is the vacuum period!

Inventory plays the "dragging tactic": the most cunning are those who play with inventory! Just look at car sales! Manufacturers hold back on price increases, enduring it! Why? They are waiting for those "unlucky" new cars burdened with the new tariff costs to arrive at the store, and only then do they release this "toxic gas" onto consumers! This trick is secretly used across various industries! It's just that transportation costs occupy too large and too glaring a pit in the CPI, magnifying this issue!

Morgan Stanley's ruthless team, under the magnifying glass, feels a chill down their spine: the "import rush" that was hyped up in the first quarter only saw 80% of its growth concentrated in 7 categories! (That's just 7 out of more than 5000 products!) Gold, medicine, and the skyrocketing AI goods! This is nonsense, a comprehensive import rush! This is just capital frantically running for its life down a few dead ends! This structure is as fragile as paper! The inflation pressure hasn't dissipated at all; they are just hiding in the corners of the supply chain and playing inventory games, waiting to unleash a big move! Just wait, this volcano will erupt and make the sky dark and the earth tremble!

The Federal Reserve's meeting in September is purely digging a pit for itself to jump into! On one side is the employment market that just started to show signs of "cooling off" (the dismal non-farm numbers are solid proof), and on the other side is the inflation monster that is already baring its teeth and tightening the screws! What's worse is the looming sword of Damocles in the form of tariffs, bringing about a huge fear of "not knowing what tomorrow will be like," which is choking the life out of businesses! Who dares to hire? Who dares to expand? Even more absurdly, those trade agreements that are being touted so highly still have crucial details shrouded in mystery! The negotiation table between the U.S. and its major trading partners is now as quiet as a graveyard—stagnant!

This week's CPI? The shadow of tariffs is like a ghost, definitely haunting us! Prices continue to rise? That’s basically like lice on a bald head! But the market and the big shots at the Federal Reserve have to gamble with their heads tucked into their belts: when will the ultimate inflation attack, shrouded in thick fog and deliberately delayed by various "dragging tactics", finally pounce out and bite? Before the September meeting, there will be one last employment report and one CPI data as the "final judgment". But a spine-chilling question looms: will these two supposed guiding "edicts" be thrown into chaos by the tariff mess, which can change faster than flipping a book and turn the details into a mushy broth? Completely distorted?

When those politicians are intoxicated by the "power high" brought on by wielding the tariff big stick, do they see the small and medium enterprises in the supply chain that are gasping for breath and on the verge of collapse? Do they see the increasingly desperate eyes of ordinary people in front of the supermarket shelves, clutching their deflated wallets and staring at the soaring price tags? Tariffs have never been a precise scalpel; they are just a heavy, blunt, and incredibly slow axe! The wounds it inflicts do not bleed immediately. But the bones are already broken! The tendons are already torn! It’s just that the foul-smelling pus and blood need time to slowly seep onto your dining table and slap you in the face! The Federal Reserve is wobbling on the tightrope of inflation and employment, looking like a fool. The huge uncertainty brought by tariff policies is like a gust of wind, ready to completely blow it down and smash it to pieces!

When that dull axe finally struck home and blood flowed like a river, would those who rushed to swing the axe even recognize the ruins they had personally chopped to pieces? When the heavy door of the Federal Reserve closed in September, the data they clutched in their hands had already been marinated in the fog of tariffs—this time, who the hell can guarantee that these people won’t be completely befuddled in the fog, driving the American economy straight into the abyss with a single push of the accelerator?

Buddy, let me ask you this with a clear conscience: how long can that little bit of cash in your pocket withstand the "blunt knife" of rising prices cutting into your flesh? While you can still catch your breath, let's talk about it.