A German trader bets $250,000 on Polymarket that Trump will not fire Powell.

A player from Germany, trading on a certain platform with a background in political science, has accumulated a profit of $840,000 on the platform thanks to his expertise. This trader's most recent large bet was an investment of $250,000, believing that Jerome Powell can withstand the pressure and continue to serve as the chairman of the Federal Reserve by the end of this year.

Recently, a media outlet interviewed this trader to explore why he has heavily bet on the trading idea that "Trump will ultimately concede." Below are the edited interview contents, and all responses represent the interviewee's personal views.

Why do you think Trump won't fire Jerome Powell?

I have invested approximately $250,000 in markets related to Powell. The largest position is betting that Powell will remain the Chairman of the Federal Reserve until the end of the year, as this market has the strongest liquidity. I also participated in trades related to whether Trump will fire him before the end of August.

My point is simple: Trump can get his way on issues that face no real resistance. But as soon as he encounters resistance in the real world, he is unable to achieve his goals. This is the origin of what I call the "Trump will eventually back down" theory.

Powell's situation is similar but carries greater risks. Trump could theoretically fire him, but the market reaction would be very severe, which would give him cause for concern. All his advisors are advising him against doing so.

Do you think the reaction of the financial market is a key constraint factor?

That's right. Last Tuesday they released a tentative message saying they were going to fire Powell, and the S&P index dropped 50 points within 30 minutes. This is how they make policy decisions now—release a message, see how the market reacts, and then make a decision. Due to the market crash, they quickly retracted their previous statements.

The risk is that Trump may feel a drop of 50 points is acceptable. But if he really fires Powell, we might see the stock market plunge by 150 points. This unknown market reaction is enough to make him hesitant to act rashly.

When did you enter this trade?

A few months ago, I made a small purchase, when the probability of "opposition" was between 85% and 90%. I don't think Trump would take crazy actions that would cause the market to collapse.

Later, someone started frequently posting on social media, claiming that Powell should be fired. The market dipped slightly, but I did not take any action.

It wasn't until a lawmaker revealed that Powell would be fired that I started to increase my buying power. Although I think this is nonsense, it is clear that Trump is indeed considering this issue. When the price dropped to about 80%, I began to buy in large quantities.

What do you think about the possibility of Trump firing Powell?

If the price can return to the 90s, I might reduce my position. But it depends on the specific timing. If by October there is only one Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left and the market is calm, I might not sell. But if the price quickly reaches the 90s in August and this topic gradually quiets down, I might consider selling.

The FOMC meeting is crucial because interest rate decisions may anger Trump more than anything else. Dismissing Powell is, to some extent, a strategy to divert attention, but he is indeed angry about it.

How do you assess Powell's mental state?

I believe that Powell will never voluntarily resign no matter what. They will have to force him out. Resigning would mean admitting guilt, and he has a sense of mission. He has expressed a desire to be like Volcker, willing to stand up to political pressure and not yield.

This made Trump very angry because there is one person in the United States he cannot manipulate. Powell has not publicly commented, but he is taking action against Trump.

How would you respond if Trump suddenly announced he was going to fire Powell?

I might not sell immediately. My position in the market is too large. If I believe there is still a chance to win, I might consider buying more at a lower price. On these types of trading platforms, a good strategy is to provide liquidity when others don't want to trade.

The market often fluctuates sharply due to breaking news, only to retreat afterwards. It is rare for news to instantly become established fact. I certainly hope that Trump does not do that. If he really fires Powell, it would lead to significant losses in my profits this year. However, my returns have been pretty good this year, so I don't mind taking the risk to increase my position.

Do you have any final thoughts on the risks of this transaction?

This is the most dangerous of all trades related to Trump, as he personally dislikes Powell and it's too easy to manipulate. He won't do anything extreme, but firing Powell could be just a social media post away.

The worst-case scenario is that the market remains stagnant: the bullish side remains high because the bill needs to pass through Congress, they question Powell, Trump makes some statements again, and there is no catalyst for the market to rebound. I'm feeling a bit torn right now. That's why I don't mind having a smaller position. But for now, I can only grit my teeth and continue to hold.