BTC (Bitcoin) faces adjustment risks after the FOMC meeting due to a lack of new material, but policy expectations provide support | Latest trends and market predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) | Moneyクリ Monex Securities' investment information and media useful for money.

Market Trends for This Week (July 25 - July 31)

Market Review BTC (Bitcoin): The US trade negotiations, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), and corporate earnings are intertwined, leading to a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase amidst the intersection of progress in trade negotiations in the United States and a retreat in expectations for interest rate cuts.

At the beginning of the week, it was revealed that whale investors (large holders since the early days of BTC) through Galaxy Digital sold over 80,000 BTC, marking the largest sale to date, causing BTC to temporarily plummet to around $115,000 (approximately ¥17,020,000). However, there was also a sense of relief from having absorbed the selling, which helped support the market with buying on dips.

Subsequently, a tariff agreement was reached between the United States and the EU, and the risk appetite mood strengthened, leading to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index setting record highs for consecutive days. In line with this, Bitcoin also made a significant rebound to around $119,000 (approximately ¥17.61 million). Additionally, large fundraising efforts by MicroStrategy [MSTR] and ongoing large purchases by Metaplanet (3350) also contributed to the market's upward momentum.

In the latter half of the week, a wait-and-see mood grew stronger ahead of the FOMC, and the rise in U.S. stocks took a breather. With major U.S. tech companies like Microsoft [MSFT] and Apple [AAPL], as well as Coinbase [COIN] awaiting their earnings announcements, investor caution intensified, causing the market to temporarily lose direction.

At the FOMC meeting on July 30, the decision to keep interest rates unchanged was announced as expected by the market, and Chair Powell maintained a cautious stance. As a result, the outlook for a rate cut in September diminished, leading to a temporary increase in selling pressure on Bitcoin. However, positive factors such as strong U.S. corporate earnings, progress in trade negotiations with various countries, and the U.S. government's publication of reports related to cryptocurrencies followed one after another, allowing BTC=118,000( to recover to approximately 17.46 million yen) and maintain a high price range.

Market Forecast for Next Week (August 1 - August 7)

BTC (Bitcoin) is facing adjustment risks due to the exhaustion of material following the FOMC meeting, but policy expectations provide support.

Next week, Bitcoin is expected to continue its resilient trend while being cautious of a short-term adjustment phase due to passing major materials.

After the FOMC meeting, the market is increasingly anticipating that interest rates will remain unchanged in September. If future announcements of major U.S. economic indicators or statements from Federal Reserve officials further reduce expectations for interest rate cuts, selling could spread across all risk assets, potentially causing Bitcoin to decline as well. Additionally, the application of the U.S. tariff surcharges is set to begin. If President Trump announces additional tough tariff measures against countries that have not reached a tariff agreement, risk-off sentiment could strengthen further.

On the other hand, expectations are rising for the progress of legal frameworks, as the U.S. government has published a comprehensive report related to cryptocurrency assets and is deliberating on the "CLARITY Act," which aims to clarify the definitions and classifications of cryptocurrency assets. Furthermore, reports indicate that new details regarding the Bitcoin reserve proposal will be announced, and if such policy support is introduced, there are expectations that Bitcoin may be purchased independently of trends in the financial markets.

However, since August marks the beginning of the summer vacation season, it is expected that market participants will gradually decrease, and unless there are significant developments before the Jackson Hole meeting in the latter half of the month, a lack of momentum is anticipated.

In the recent price range, the upper limit is BTC=123,000 dollars (approximately 18.2 million yen) and the lower limit is BTC=115,000 dollars (approximately 17.02 million yen).