Crypto Market Macroeconomic Analysis: Key Window for Reconstructing Pricing Logic

1. Overview

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market experienced a transition from a high-heat market to a short-term adjustment. Although multiple sectors took turns guiding sentiment, the impact of macroeconomic pressure gradually emerged. The global economic situation was turbulent, with fluctuating data from the United States, and changing expectations of interest rate cuts led the market into an important turning point. At the same time, the policy environment began to show marginal changes: the positive attitude of certain political factions towards cryptocurrencies sparked early expectations among investors for a new positioning of Bitcoin. The current cycle is still in the "mid-term pullback phase," but structural opportunities are forming, and the pricing benchmark is undergoing a macro-level transformation.

2. Macroeconomic Environment: The Old Framework Collapses, New Anchor Points Await Establishment

In May 2025, the crypto market is at a critical period of macro logic reconstruction. The traditional pricing model is rapidly collapsing, while new valuation benchmarks have yet to form, leading the market into a "vague and anxious" macro environment. From economic data, central bank policy orientations, to marginal changes in global geopolitical relations, all are influencing the behavior patterns of the entire crypto market in a posture of "new order amidst instability."

The monetary policy of a certain country's central bank is shifting from "data dependence" to a new phase of "political and stagflation pressure games." Recent inflation data shows that while inflationary pressures have eased, overall stickiness remains, especially with the rigidity of service sector prices still quite high. This, combined with structural shortages in the labor market, makes it difficult for inflation to drop rapidly. Although the unemployment rate has shown a marginal increase, it has not yet triggered the lower limit for policy reversal, leading the market to expect that the timing for interest rate cuts is likely postponed from June to the fourth quarter or even later. While the central bank governor does not rule out the possibility of a rate cut within the year in public statements, his language emphasizes "cautious observation" and "commitment to long-term inflation targets," making the vision of liquidity easing seem more distant in reality.

This uncertain macro environment directly affects the funding pricing basis of encryption assets. Over the past three years, encryption assets enjoyed valuation premiums under the backdrop of "zero interest rates + broad liquidity easing," but now, in the latter half of the period after high interest rates have dulled, traditional valuation models face systemic failure. Although Bitcoin maintains a fluctuating upward trend driven by structural funding, it has failed to generate momentum to break through the next important threshold, reflecting the disintegration of its "alignment path" with traditional macro assets. The market is beginning to no longer apply simple linkage logic but is gradually realizing that encryption assets require independent policy anchors and role anchors.

At the same time, significant changes are occurring in the geopolitical variables that have influenced the market since the beginning of the year. The previously heated trade disputes have notably cooled down. Recently, a certain political team's shift in focus regarding the "manufacturing return" issue indicates that conflicts are unlikely to escalate further in the short term. This has temporarily dampened the logic of "geopolitical hedging + Bitcoin as a risk-resistant asset," leading the market to no longer assign a premium to the "hedging anchor" of crypto assets, and instead seek new policy support and narrative momentum. This is also an important background for the shift in the crypto market from a structural rebound to high-level fluctuations, and even the continuous outflow of funds from some on-chain assets since mid-May.

At a deeper level, the entire global financial system is facing a systemic process of "anchor point reconstruction." The US dollar index is consolidating at high levels, and the interrelationship between gold, government bonds, and the stock market has been disrupted. Crypto assets are caught in the middle, lacking the central bank endorsement that traditional safe-haven assets possess, and have not been fully integrated into the risk control frameworks of mainstream financial institutions. This "neither a risk nor a safe haven" intermediate state has led to a "relatively ambiguous zone" for the pricing of major crypto assets. This ambiguous macro anchor further transmits downstream, resulting in various branch narratives experiencing bursts of activity but struggling to sustain. Without the support of macro incremental funds, localized prosperity on the chain is likely to fall into the "rapid ignition - quick extinguishment" rotation trap.

We are entering a "de-financialization" turning window dominated by macro variables. At this stage, market liquidity and trends are no longer driven by simple asset correlations, but depend on the redistribution of policy pricing power and institutional roles. If the crypto market wants to welcome the next round of systemic revaluation, it must wait for a new macro anchor------it could be the official establishment of Bitcoin's new positioning, the initiation of a clear interest rate cut cycle, or the acceptance of on-chain financial infrastructure by governments of multiple countries worldwide. Only when these macro-level anchors are truly established will there be a comprehensive return of risk appetite and a resonant upward movement of asset prices.

Currently, the crypto market needs to move away from the persistent adherence to old logic and instead calmly identify the subtle signs of new anchor points emerging. Those funds and projects that can first understand the changes in the macro structure and strategically position themselves for new anchor points will gain the upper hand in the next true upward trend.

3. Policy Changes: Stablecoin Bill Approved, State-Level Bitcoin Reserves Implemented, Triggering Structural Expectations

In May 2025, the Senate of a certain country officially passed a stablecoin bill, becoming one of the most institutionally influential stablecoin legislative proposals in the world. The passage of this bill not only marks the establishment of a regulatory framework for dollar stablecoins but also releases a clear signal: stablecoins are no longer a technical experiment or a gray financial tool, but have become an integral part of the sovereign financial system, serving as an organic extension of the influence of digital dollars.

The core content of the bill mainly focuses on three aspects: firstly, establishing the regulatory authority's licensing management power over stablecoin issuers, and setting capital, reserve, and transparency requirements equivalent to those of banks; secondly, providing a legal basis and standard interface for the interoperability of stablecoins with commercial banks and payment institutions, promoting their widespread application in retail payments, cross-border settlements, and financial interoperability; thirdly, establishing a "technical sandbox" exemption mechanism for decentralized stablecoins, reserving innovation space for open finance within a compliant and controllable framework.

From a macro perspective, the passage of this bill has triggered a triple structural shift in expectations regarding the crypto market. Firstly, a new paradigm of "on-chain anchoring" has emerged in the international extension path of the dollar system. Stablecoins, as the "federal checks" of the digital age, not only serve the internal payments of Web3 through their on-chain circulation capabilities but may also function as part of the dollar policy transmission mechanism, enhancing their competitive advantage in emerging markets. This also means that instead of merely suppressing crypto assets, there is a choice to incorporate some "channel rights" into the national financial system, legitimizing stablecoins while positioning the dollar in advance for the upcoming digital financial war.

Secondly, there is a re-evaluation of on-chain financial structures driven by the legalization of stablecoins. The ecosystem of compliant stablecoins will usher in a liquidity explosion period, and the logic of on-chain payments, on-chain credit, and on-chain ledger reconstruction will further activate the demand for bridging DeFi with RWAs assets. Especially against the backdrop of high interest rates, high inflation, and regional currency fluctuations in the traditional financial environment, the property of stablecoins as "cross-system arbitrage tools" will further attract emerging market users and on-chain asset management institutions. Less than two weeks after the bill was passed, the daily trading volume of certain platform stablecoins reached a new high for 2023, and the circulating market value of a certain on-chain stablecoin grew by nearly 12% month-on-month, with the liquidity focus beginning to shift from other stablecoins to compliant assets.

More structurally significant is the fact that multiple state governments have quickly followed up with the release of Bitcoin strategic reserve plans after the bill was passed. As of late May, one state has passed a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, while several other states have announced plans to allocate a portion of their fiscal surpluses as Bitcoin reserve assets, citing reasons such as inflation hedging, diversification of fiscal structure, and support for the local blockchain industry. In a sense, this behavior marks the transition of Bitcoin from a "grassroots consensus asset" to being included in the "local fiscal asset ledger," representing a digital reconstruction of the logic of reserve assets from the golden era. Although the scale is still small and the mechanisms are not yet stable, the political signals released behind it are far more important than the asset volume: Bitcoin is beginning to become a "government-level option."

These policy dynamics collectively contribute to a new structural landscape: stablecoins become "on-chain dollars", Bitcoin becomes "local gold", both serving distinct roles from the perspectives of payment and reserve, coexisting and hedging against the traditional monetary system. This situation provides another safe anchoring logic in the year 2025, characterized by geopolitical financial fragmentation and declining institutional trust. This also explains why the crypto market maintained high-level fluctuations in mid-May despite poor macro data (persistent high interest rates and inflation rebound)------because the structural shift at the policy level has established long-term certainty support for the market.

After the bill is passed, the market's reassessment of the "bond yield-stablecoin yield" model will also accelerate the alignment of stablecoin products with "on-chain bonds" and "on-chain money market funds". In a certain sense, the future digital debt structure may be partially managed by stablecoins. The expectation of bond on-chaining is gradually becoming clear through the institutionalization of stablecoins as a window.

Four, Market Structure: The sector rotation is intense, and the main line is yet to be confirmed.

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market is exhibiting a highly tense structural contradiction: on the macro level, policy expectations are warming up, and stablecoins and Bitcoin are moving towards "institutional embedding"; however, on the micro structural level, there is still a lack of a truly market-consensus-driven "main track". This has led to the overall market showing clear characteristics of frequent rotations, weak sustainability, and brief "idling" of liquidity. In other words, while funds are still flowing on-chain, the sense of direction and certainty has yet to be reconstructed, which stands in stark contrast to certain "single-track main upward waves" cycles in 2021 or 2023.

Firstly, from the performance of the sectors, the crypto market showed an extreme differentiation structure in May 2025. Multiple tracks took turns to strengthen in a "pass-the-parcel" manner, with each sub-track's continuous explosive cycle lasting less than two weeks, followed by a rapid dispersal of subsequent follow-up funds. For example, a certain track once triggered a new round of frenzy, but due to a weak community consensus and overspent market sentiment, the market quickly adjusted from a high position; the AI track, like some leading projects, exhibited "high volatility" characteristics, significantly influenced by the sentiment of related stocks, lacking continuity in spontaneous narratives within the chain; while certain representative RWA projects, although certain, entered a "price-value divergence" consolidation period as airdrop expectations had been partially fulfilled.

The data on capital flows indicates that this rotation phenomenon essentially reflects a structural liquidity overflow rather than the initiation of a structural bull market. Since mid-May, the market capitalization of a certain stablecoin has stagnated, while the other two have slightly rebounded. The daily average trading volume on on-chain DEXs has maintained a fluctuation range of 2.5 to 3 billion USD, shrinking nearly 40% compared to the peak in March. There has been no significant influx of new funds into the market; instead, existing funds are looking for "local high volatility + high sentiment" short-term trading opportunities. In this situation, even frequent shifts in tracks are unlikely to form a strong mainline trend, which further amplifies the "pass-the-parcel" speculation rhythm, leading to a decrease in retail investors' willingness to participate and exacerbating the disconnection between trading enthusiasm and social activity.

On the other hand, the phenomenon of valuation stratification is intensifying. First-tier blue-chip projects exhibit significant valuation premiums, while leading assets continue to attract large capital, and long-tail projects find themselves in an awkward situation of "fundamentals cannot be priced, expectations cannot be fulfilled." Data shows that in May 2025, the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization accounted for nearly 71% of the total market capitalization, the highest level since 2022, displaying characteristics similar to the "concentration return" seen in traditional capital markets. In the absence of a "broad market" backdrop.