Market Trends and Hot Spot Analysis

1. Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment

The Federal Reserve is reassessing the potential impact of the new government on the economy and inflation. Reports indicate that the Fed Chairman is dissatisfied with the public comments of certain officials, believing they have too directly linked Fed policy to changes in the new government's policies. Currently, the market generally expects that future rate cuts will be more gradual and cautious.

Analysts point out that the prospects for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 are full of uncertainties, and investors need to cope with potential economic fluctuations. According to the data, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.8%. By March, the probability of keeping the current rate unchanged drops to 50.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 44.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.

(2) Web3 field

The cryptocurrency market continues to experience turbulence and decline, with Bitcoin once again falling below $95,000, hitting a low of $93,000, marking a new low in nearly a week. Data shows that funding rates on major exchanges are generally bearish. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $287 million on Friday, with a total net outflow of $376 million last week.

During the market adjustment period, the tokens of centralized trading platforms performed relatively well. Meanwhile, the popularity of AI Agent related projects continues, with a noticeable influx of funds.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment

The regulatory head of a well-known venture capital firm posted on social media, expressing confidence in DeFi, believing that DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more convenient, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, the official pointed out that the recent new broker report rules issued by the U.S. Treasury represent a direct threat to this vision and may hinder the future of DeFi innovation in the U.S.

The agency supports lawsuits initiated by multiple blockchain-related organizations, arguing that the IRS and the Department of the Treasury have exceeded their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), and may be unconstitutional. The official emphasized that they will continue to fight for the future of DeFi in courts, Congress, and with the support of the new administration.

(2) Web3 field

The Securities Commission of Malaysia has taken strict enforcement action against a cryptocurrency trading platform and its CEO for operating a crypto asset trading business locally without proper registration. The regulator has ordered the platform to immediately cease all operations in Malaysia and to complete rectification within the specified timeframe.

In addition, the platform has been required to terminate all advertising activities aimed at Malaysian investors and to close social media groups that provide support for local users. The regulatory agency stated that this decision was based on concerns about whether the platform complies with local regulatory requirements and protects investors' rights. According to local laws, operating a digital asset trading platform (DAX) without the approval of the Securities Commission as a registered market operator (RMO) is considered illegal.

3. Hot Narrative

The AI agent market has once again attracted widespread attention. Data shows that despite the overall correction in the crypto market, the AI agent sector has risen against the trend, with a 24-hour increase of 1.54%. A certain AI project recently released a proposal for an update on its token economics, planning to focus on innovation within specific frameworks by acquiring mature technologies and teams during the Launchpad phase in the first quarter of 2025, and achieving multi-chain integration to increase launch fees, staking, and other value capture mechanisms.

The second phase focuses on ecological growth and incentive synergy, aiming to enhance the value of multiple products, strengthen the connections between tokens, and incentivize developers through methods such as buybacks and ecological funds. Subsequently, the project's market capitalization once soared to $1.5 billion, setting a historical high, reflecting the market's recognition of the potential of AI agents.

2. Hot Projects

$SLINKY project

• Narrative: The largest token airdrop in the SOL ecosystem, representing a significant breakthrough in Solana token technology.
• Market Performance: The market capitalization broke through 10 million USD within half an hour after the token was issued, then retraced to 7 million USD, and is currently quoted at around 11 million USD.
• Airdrop details: 10% of the total supply will be allocated to wallets holding more than 0.006 SOL during the specified snapshot period, benefiting a total of 27,775,857 wallets.
• Technological Innovation: Utilizing ZK Compression technology to achieve large-scale distribution, significantly reducing the transaction fees required for airdrops from the traditional method of 55550 SOL to only 22.2 SOL.

III. Sector Rotation

Due to the original text containing images, it cannot be directly displayed in the text. Sector rotation analysis typically includes comparisons of the price fluctuations of various cryptocurrency sectors, as well as the performance of specific projects within their respective sectors. Investors can use this data to assess changes in market hotspots and the flow of funds.