China's second quarter GDP maintains its growth momentum, will it affect the price of Bitcoin (BTC)?

China's strong economic performance in the second quarter has brought mixed signals to the digital asset market, as the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy has had a complex impact on the valuation of Crypto Assets through the constantly changing correlation patterns.

In the second quarter of 2025, China's economy grew by 5.2%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.1%. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed that despite escalating global trade tensions, China's economy continued to maintain a sustained growth momentum, laying the foundation for the strategic reallocation of digital assets.

Mixed macroeconomic signals

Despite the U.S. upgrading tariffs, China's exports continue to perform strongly. Through strategic market diversification and prior investments, exports surged in June, resulting in a trade surplus of $114.8 billion.

However, behind the overall growth, domestic consumption challenges still exist. Despite the Chinese government's introduction of a consumption stimulus plan worth 300 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in June fell from 6.4% in May to 4.8%. Real estate investment in the first half of the year declined by 11.2%, continuing to weigh down the economy.

The Dynamic Relationship Between Bitcoin and Macroeconomics

According to BeInCrypto, digital asset analysts are monitoring the correlation pattern that has been established between China's stimulus measures and Bitcoin price trends.

Current data shows that the 30-day correlation coefficient between the balance sheet expansion (liquidity injection) of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the valuation of Bitcoin is 0.66, and this correlation tends to strengthen during periods of economic uncertainty.

When the People's Bank of China launches stimulus plans, excess liquidity typically flows into risk assets, including Crypto Assets. The pressure of RMB depreciation further drives Chinese capital towards Bitcoin to hedge against the risks of currency depreciation and capital controls.

Strong GDP growth reduces the likelihood of immediate stimulus measures, which may limit the upside potential for Bitcoin driven by correlation. In contrast, persistent domestic demand weakness may require additional monetary policy easing.