Analysis of the Peak Value That Bitcoin May Reach in This Bull Run

As Bitcoin shows a strong upward momentum, investors are generally concerned about how high the price of Bitcoin can rise in this bull run. This article will explore the possible highest price targets for Bitcoin by analyzing a series of on-chain valuation models and cyclical tools. Although predictions cannot replace data-driven flexibility, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and possible future trends.

Price Prediction Tool

Multiple historically accurate valuation models provide us with a strong market background reference. When macroeconomic factors, derivatives, and on-chain data start to send warning signals, it is usually a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target has been reached. Nevertheless, exploring these valuation tools remains significantly instructive and can assist in strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.

Several key models include:

1. Top Market Cap (Top Cap): This model predicts peak valuation by multiplying the historical average market cap by 35. The model accurately predicted the peak in 2017 but failed to accurately predict the 2020-2021 cycle. Currently, the model predicts over $500,000, which seems a bit overly optimistic.

2. Delta Top ( Delta Top ): Generates more realistic predictions by subtracting the average market cap from the realized market cap. In the previous cycle, this model predicted a top of $80,000 to $100,000.

3. Terminal Price (: Based on the coin age destruction calculation adjusted for supply, it is the model that is historically closest to each peak, including the $64,000 top in 2021. The current prediction is approximately $221,000, which may rise to $250,000 or higher, and is considered the most reliable macro Bitcoin top prediction model.

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Peak Prediction

The MVRV ratio is another powerful indicator that compares market capitalization to realized capitalization, providing a window into investor sentiment. This ratio typically peaks around 4 in major cycles, and is currently at 2.34, indicating significant room for further upside. Historically, when MVRV approaches 3.5 to 4, long-term holders begin to realize substantial gains, often signaling the maturity of the cycle. However, due to diminishing returns, this cycle may not reach a full 4. Using a more conservative estimate of 3.5, we can start predicting a more realistic peak.

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Calculate Target Price

Timing and valuation are equally important. By analyzing "BTC growth since the last cycle low point," we find that previous Bitcoin cycles peaked at around 1060 days from the low point. Currently, we are about 930 days into this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak may arrive in about 130 days.

Historically, price increases driven by FOMO typically occur at the end of a cycle, leading to a rapid rise in the realized price. Assuming the growth rate is halved again due to diminishing returns, the realized price could increase by 65% from the current $47,000, potentially reaching about $78,000 by October 18.

Combining the expected price of $78,000 and a conservative target of 3.5 MVRV, we derive a potential peak price for Bitcoin at $273,000. While this may seem ambitious, historical parabolic surges indicate that such a trend could occur in weeks rather than months. Although the peak is expected to be more likely between $150,000 and $200,000, mathematical and on-chain evidence suggest that higher valuations are at least possible. It is worth noting that these models adjust dynamically; if market frenzy intensifies towards the end of the cycle, predictions may quickly accelerate further.

![On-chain data analysis: Where might Bitcoin reach its peak this cycle?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b97685c7907b12579f1250638ddaf835.webp(

![On-chain data analysis: Where might Bitcoin reach its peak in this cycle?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-78a40a5969e83a93ba3261dcc3b49514.webp(

![On-chain data analysis: where might Bitcoin reach its peak in this cycle?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-adcb268e260f3556c2747de7850bee52.webp(

Conclusion

Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain, as there are too many variables to fully consider. What we can do is establish a probabilistic framework based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools such as MVRV ratio, terminal price, and Delta peak have repeatedly demonstrated their value in predicting market tops. While the target of $273,000 may seem optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cyclical timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine investment hypotheses, but remain flexible enough to take profits in a timely manner when broader ecosystem signals indicate a top.