The U.S. Election is in full swing: Who will win, Harris or Trump?

Recently, the battle for the U.S. presidential election has intensified. On September 10, the two main candidates faced off for the first time on the debate stage, which may be the only direct confrontation before the election. The market generally believes that Harris performed better than expected in the debate, while Trump seemed somewhat lackluster.

After the debate, the betting market reacted quickly. Within just two hours, the contract price for Harris's election rose from $53 to $57, while Trump's dropped from $52 to $47, widening the gap further. This change reflects that more people are optimistic about Harris's chances of winning.

In the debate, Harris excelled on multiple issues. She demonstrated an understanding of female voters on the abortion issue, shared personal experiences on racial matters, and emphasized future development plans, conveying hope for driving change. In contrast, Trump mainly focused on issues such as illegal immigration, tariff policies, and fossil fuel supply, lacking innovation in his arguments, which may make it difficult to attract moderate voters.

Subsequently, Harris invited Trump for another televised debate on social media, hoping to gain more votes from it.

However, on September 24, Harris's campaign office in Arizona was shot at. Police investigations determined that it was a potential property crime. There were two interpretations of this event in the market: one believed it was an act of retaliation by Trump supporters, while the other suspected it was a self-directed act by Harris's team aimed at diverting public attention.

In terms of campaign funding, Harris shows a clear advantage. According to the latest federal filing documents, Harris's team had an average daily expenditure of up to $7.5 million in August, while Trump's camp spent $2.6 million. In fundraising, Harris's team raised a total of $361 million for the Democratic Party in August, amounting to $404 million in total. In contrast, Trump's team raised only $130 million during the same period, with a total of $295 million including donations from political action committees.

Harris's multiple identities have earned her broad support. She is from a minority and immigrant family, while also having an elite education and extensive legal experience. However, her political career has also been controversial, including some decisions made during her tenure as a prosecutor and criticisms arising from her campaign strategies.

Currently, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump by 1.6% in the polls. Among the confirmed electoral votes, Harris has about 226 votes, while Trump has about 219 votes. To win, Harris needs 44 more electoral votes, while Trump needs 51.

There are significant differences in the policy proposals of the two candidates. Harris tends to subsidize residents through fiscal expansion, which may lead to an increase in bond issuance in the short term, adversely affecting bond assets, but could support the dollar. Her tax increase policy may put pressure on the US stock market. Trump's policies, on the other hand, are relatively favorable to the US stock market, cyclical commodities, and digital currencies, but may have an intervention effect on the dollar.

In the next two months, the election situation remains uncertain. The United States uses the "Electoral College system," meaning that the candidate with the most popular votes may not necessarily be elected. According to the current polling support rates in various states, the election situation in swing states is more intense than in previous years. The outcome of the election is still to be observed.