Current Status of Sui Ecosystem Development and Token Release Analysis

Sui, as one of the representative projects of the Move-based public chain, has been online for over 40 days since its launch on May 3rd. As a project that follows a different development path from Ethereum L2, Sui has faced continuous controversy since its launch, particularly regarding its Token issuance method and release model. Some believe it may repeat the mistakes of ICP, while others compare it to the emerging public chains of 2021.

So, how is the ecological development of Sui? What is the recent token release and demand like?

1. On-Chain Data Analysis

1. Total Locked Amount ( TVL )

As of June 13, Sui's TVL was 15.22 million USD, with DEX Cetus accounting for over 60%. Among all public chains and layer two networks, Sui ranks 54th in TVL. It is worth noting that Sui's TVL peaked at 36.01 million USD and has currently dropped by more than 50%.

In contrast, another project in the Move ecosystem, Aptos, currently has a TVL of $42.11 million, with an all-time high of about $65 million, ranking 34th in TVL.

2. Trading Volume

The highest daily trading volume on the Sui DEX occurred on May 10, exceeding 19 million USD. Since then, there has been a downward trend, with daily trading volumes mostly between 3 million and 6 million USD since June, indicating lower trading activity.

3. Network Activity

Since its launch, Sui has recorded a total of 16.53 million transactions, with an average TPS of 3, and a total of 850,000 active addresses, along with 104 active nodes. The highest recorded TPS on the network was 26, which occurred on May 12th, the day of the Turbos IDO.

Compared to Ethereum L2, Sui's actual TPS is still relatively low.

In terms of daily active addresses, the peak occurred on May 20, reaching 130,000, mainly due to the launch of the permissionless pool feature by Cetus on May 19, along with airdrops from meme projects across the network. On regular days, the daily active addresses are usually below 10,000.

4. Cross-Chain Bridge

Currently, there are three cross-chain bridges supporting Sui: Wormhole, kriya.finance, and WELLDONE, but the specific cross-chain amount data is not yet available.

2. Overview of Ecological Projects

As of June 14, the official Sui directory includes 66 projects, some of which are still in the testing phase. The projects that have been launched and issued tokens generally perform poorly, with leading DEX projects all having dropped below their launch prices, and the social platform SUIA has plummeted nearly 81.82%. Only Suipad has performed relatively well, mainly due to its lower IDO pricing.

It is worth noting that due to the limited users and funds on Sui, some projects like Abyss World have chosen to conduct their IDO on Polygon instead of the Sui network.

3. Token Release and Demand Analysis

The total supply of Sui Token is 10 billion pieces, with an initial circulation of 528 million pieces, accounting for 5.28%. From May to October 2023, Sui primarily has two types of Token releases: IEO issued Token releases and staking node incentive releases.

Approximately 34.61 million tokens are released each month in the IEO section, with 33.3 million tokens released monthly in the node staking incentive section for the first three months, and 30 million tokens released monthly from the 4th to the 6th month.

In total, the average monthly release for the first three months is 67.94 million coins (accounting for 0.67% of the total), and the average monthly release from the 4th to the 6th month is 64.61 million coins (accounting for 0.64% of the total).

In November 2023, a large-scale unlock will take place, with over 1 billion tokens being unlocked on that day, doubling the number of circulating tokens.

However, from the demand side, the Sui network transactions are quiet, with few users, and there is no significant demand for SUI Token in the short term.

4. Comparison with Aptos Token Release Model

The total supply of Aptos Tokens (excluding staking incentives) is 1 billion coins, with an initial circulation of 130 million coins, accounting for 13%. In the first year after launch, 4.54 million coins will be released each month (accounting for 0.45% of the total supply). Starting from the second year, the monthly release amount will significantly increase.

Aptos also has node staking incentives, with approximately 86% of the tokens in the network currently staked. In the 8 months since its launch, the monthly staking incentives are around 4.9 million tokens, accounting for 0.49% of the total token supply.

In comparison, Sui's initial circulation is lower than Aptos, but the average monthly release in the first 6 months is 50% higher. Sui experienced its first large-scale release 6 months after its launch, while Aptos had it 12 months later. Sui adopts a one-time large-scale release, while Aptos takes a monthly release approach.

Overall, Sui faces greater token supply pressure in the first year than Aptos, while a large supply of Aptos is concentrated in the second year.

5. Conclusion

Sui is currently in the cold start phase, with insufficient user numbers, low trading volume, and urgently needs to attract users and capital inflow through continuous activities and development.

However, the Sui team currently seems to be more focused on technical development, including hosting hackathons and developer events, and has not yet launched user incentive measures.

At the same time, in a bear market environment, funds and users tend to be conservative, coupled with the continuous development of Ethereum's Layer 2 networks attracting a large amount of existing capital, these factors have increased the difficulty for Sui to attract funds and users.

From the perspective of the token economic model, the release pressure of Sui Token is concentrated in the first year. In the case of insufficient demand, such a large token supply puts significant selling pressure on the SUI Token.