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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (06.27 - 07.04)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trend Analysis
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of digital currencies reached $3.58 trillion, a decrease of 7.90% compared to the previous week. The trading volume on exchanges decreased, reaching $7.7 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 4%, hitting a low of $98,839.87. Overall market sentiment is bearish, with a dominant trend of decline.
Today's market sentiment is greedy, with the fear and greed index at 73. The overall market sentiment is showing extreme greed, and investors should remain cautious.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic situation is complex, and changes in monetary policy have had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%. This strong data alleviated concerns about an economic slowdown but also intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to data from the CME Group, the market expects a 4.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rates unchanged in December, with a cumulative probability of 95.4% for a 25 basis point rate cut.
The Eurozone's CPI in May rose by 6.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. PMI data shows that the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for June is 43.6, below the expected 44.0, marking the seventh consecutive month in the contraction zone. The PPI increased by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.1%. These data reflect the increasing pressure of economic slowdown in Europe.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) influence each other. When the PPI continues to rise, producers pass the costs onto consumers, thereby driving up the CPI. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reflects the direction of economic expansion or contraction. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while a PMI below 50 indicates contraction. Changes in indicators such as PMI, PPI, and CPI will impact the central bank's monetary policy decisions.
Overall, the slowdown in global economic growth and high inflation have put immense pressure on the monetary policies of central banks worldwide. Changes in monetary policy will directly affect the volatility of asset prices, and the cryptocurrency market will also be impacted.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis Summary:
This week's important economic data is concentrated in the middle of the week and on Friday. On Wednesday, China will release the year-on-year M2 money supply for June, and New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. On Thursday, the U.S. will publish the results of the 10-year Treasury bond auction and the initial jobless claims. On Friday, the UK will release GDP and trade data, and Canada will announce employment figures. Other notable data to watch includes China's foreign exchange reserves on Monday, Japan's trade balance and Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday, and U.S. wholesale sales on Wednesday. Investors need to closely monitor the impact of this data on the global economy.
2. Analysis of the Fund Flow and Price Volatility
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 2.17%.
Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the price of BTC has shown an upward trend, with a weekly increase of 5.83%. The main reasons include: 1. Institutional investors continue to buy through ETFs; 2. Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading investors to view BTC as a safe-haven asset; 3. The continuous decrease in the supply of BTC on exchanges, with supply shortages driving prices up.
Impact of Trading Volume Changes This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC was $5.497 billion, an increase of 18.08% compared to last week. The increase in trading volume reflects a rise in market activity and supports the price increase. The ratio of trading volume to market capitalization reached 2.53%, indicating active trading.
Market Activity and Potential Price Direction The BTC price has broken through the key resistance level of $109,000, with trading volume continuing to increase. Analysts expect the next resistance level to be at $118,000. The relative strength index remains neutral, suggesting that BTC still has room for upward movement. Overall, market activity is high, and prices are expected to continue rising in the short term.
2.2. Capital Flow Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, Bitcoin ( BTC ) has shown a net inflow trend over the past week. The data shows that as of July 4, 2025, the net inflow amount for BTC on that day reached $112 million. This indicates an increase in investor demand for Bitcoin.
At the same time, the capital flow of Ethereum (ETH) is also worth noting. Data shows that ETH experienced a slight net outflow in the past week. This may reflect investors' cautious attitude towards the short-term trend of ETH.
Institutional Investor Behavior: Data shows that institutional investors have exhibited different attitudes towards BTC and ETH over the past week. Demand for BTC has increased among institutional investors, while they are taking a cautious stance towards ETH.
Retail Investor Behavior: Unlike institutional investors, retail investors exhibit a more conservative investment behavior towards BTC and ETH. Data shows that the investment amounts of retail investors in the two major cryptocurrencies have decreased over the past week.
Overall, the activity level in the cryptocurrency market has increased, and there is a differentiation in investor demand for major cryptocurrencies. The future market trend still needs to be observed further.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
BTC Smart Money Trends: BTC whales have recently shown a net outflow state, indicating that institutional investors are gradually withdrawing from top assets. According to data, the net outflow amount from BTC whale addresses in the past 7 days reached 120 million USD, an increase of 35% compared to the previous week. This means that selling pressure is increasing, and BTC may face downward pressure in the short term.
ETH Smart Money Movement: Unlike BTC, ETH whales are showing a net inflow status, indicating that institutional investors are buying the dips. Data shows that in the past 7 days, the net inflow amount to ETH whale addresses reached $28 million, a 12% increase compared to the previous period. This indicates that ETH has strong support, and it may continue to exhibit a fluctuating upward pattern in the short term.
Smart Money Trends in Altcoins: The smart money in the altcoin sector shows a divergent pattern. On one hand, popular projects like Qubetics and Tezos continue to attract large investments, indicating that institutional investors are positioning themselves in high-quality projects; on the other hand, there is a net outflow of large funds from popular public chains like Avalanche, suggesting that institutional investors are taking profits.
Overall, the movement of smart money indicates that institutional investors are gradually withdrawing from top assets like BTC and are instead positioning themselves in quality altcoin projects. This suggests that BTC may face downward pressure in the short term, while quality altcoins may continue to rise.
3. Hot Topics
The era of Bitcoin millionaires has arrived! A surge of institutional funds, a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and supply shortages have driven BTC to soar to $116,000.
"Perfect Storm" Convergence, Bitcoin Welcomes Historic Opportunity
In July 2025, Bitcoin is at a critical price turning point. Driven by multiple favorable factors such as institutional demand, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and supply shortages, Bitcoin is expected to break through the historical high of $116,000, ushering in the era of millionaires.
Markus Thielen, the research director at 10x Research, vividly referred to this convergence effect as a "perfect storm." He pointed out that three major macro catalysts are creating an ideal environment for the surge in Bitcoin prices.
1. Institutional Capital Frenzy
Despite occasional fluctuations, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong, primarily through regulated investment vehicles. Since May 1, the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) has shown significant inflows. This sustained institutional buying highlights the growing demand for Bitcoin as an asset class.
Thielen believes that this demand is partly driven by macroeconomic concerns. As global uncertainty persists, institutions are viewing Bitcoin as a tool to combat inflation and store value, recognizing its non-correlation with traditional assets.
2. Federal Reserve Policy Shift
The actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the outlook for future policies are key external factors influencing the price of Bitcoin.
On one hand, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts is a key driving factor. A more accommodative monetary policy typically leads to increased liquidity in the financial markets, which benefits risk assets such as Bitcoin.
On the other hand, President Trump may exert political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Trump has openly criticized Powell's past decisions and may advocate for selecting a new chairman who is more inclined to aggressive rate cuts. If this pressure is successful, it will accelerate the easing of monetary policy, creating an extremely favorable environment for Bitcoin.
3. Supply shortage intensifies
The fundamental supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin are increasingly leaning towards scarcity, laying the groundwork for price breakthroughs.
The balance of Bitcoin on cryptocurrency exchanges has been declining for 98 consecutive days. This ongoing outflow indicates that investors are moving Bitcoin to private secure wallets for long-term holding.
Historically, this pattern of declining exchange supply often precedes major bull markets. When the supply of Bitcoin available for sale decreases, even a slight increase in demand can lead to a significant price rise.
July surges to 116,000 USD? The era of millionaires is coming
Based on the convergence of the three major favorable factors mentioned above, Thielen predicts that Bitcoin could realistically reach $116,000 in July. This target reflects the combined impact of institutional demand, potential changes in Federal Reserve policy, and increasing scarcity.
Despite the recent slight pullback of Bitcoin, its ability to quickly rebound and maintain above key thresholds reinforces the intrinsic strength driven by these macro factors. The ongoing influx of institutional funds demonstrates strong confidence.
If Bitcoin really breaks through the $116,000 barrier, it will usher in the era of millionaires. For early investors, this means tremendous wealth appreciation opportunities.
The path of Bitcoin is paved by powerful forces. A "perfect storm" is brewing—driven by the ongoing demand from institutional investors for ETFs, the continuous uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the significant decrease in Bitcoin supply on exchanges. As these strong macroeconomic forces continue to play out, they collectively lay the groundwork for Bitcoin's next major rebound, reinforcing its role as a dynamic asset in the global financial landscape.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks and volatility. Please be sure to do your own research ( DYOR ) and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
4. Main Events
Trump Supports Bitcoin On July 4, 2025, President Trump publicly expressed support for Bitcoin, stating that it "relieves pressure on the dollar" and is a "great thing for our country." This marks a significant shift in the U.S. government's stance on digital assets, which is expected to drive institutional funds into the crypto market. Bitcoin briefly broke through $104,000 after Trump's speech.
The Central Bank of Russia Rejects Investment in Cryptocurrency On July 4, 2025, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Nabiullina, stated that due to the high risks and volatility of cryptocurrencies, the central bank will not consider them as investment assets. She reiterated that Russia opposes the use of cryptocurrencies for payments domestically but allows limited use in foreign economic activities and among qualified investors.
Launch of OpenAI and Spa Tokenized Stocks On July 4, 2025, it was announced that "tokenized" stocks of OpenAI and Spa would be offered to European users, but OpenAI denied participation in the plan and warned investors to "be cautious." Tokenized stocks are essentially a form of tokens on the blockchain equivalent to equity.
Celestia price surges On July 4, 2025, the price of Celestia(TIA) surged by 950% within an hour, attracting market attention. Traders have differing views on its short-term outlook, with some anticipating a bull market reversal, while others note bearish signals such as declining on-chain activity.
Sui price rose to $3 2025-07-04 Sui(SUI) current trading price is $3, up about 4% in the past 24 hours. This is a continued rise following Lion Group's announcement to include SUI in its $600 million cryptocurrency portfolio strategy.
Avalanche Coin Whale Activity Surges 2025-07-04 Avalanche Coin ( AVAX ) saw a massive increase in on-chain holder activity by 189% within 24 hours, significantly higher than Ethereum's 114% increase. The price has repeatedly broken through the $17-$18 range, and whale activity may suggest an impending price movement.
NEAR price aims for $3.1 On July 4, 2025, NEAR rose by 8.5% within 24 hours, testing the resistance at $2.36. A descending expanding wedge is forming on the 6-hour chart, with a breakout target of $3.1. Momentum is building near the upper boundary of the wedge.
Grayscale Fund Suspended Listing On July 4, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission suspended the listing date of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC). Insider sources revealed that this may be due to administrative reasons rather than policy reasons, in order to establish listing standards for ETFs that include assets like XRP and ADA.
Ethereum Foundation Transfers a Large Amount of ETH On July 3, 2025, the Ethereum Foundation has been transferring 1,000 ETH daily to multiple wallet addresses since June, for unknown reasons and without any secondary transfers, raising concerns in the market.
Hyperliquid project sparks airdrop frenzy On July 4, 2025, investors are pouring millions of funds into the Hyperliquid blockchain project, anticipating future token airdrops. In previous airdrops of the project, one-third of the HYPE token supply was distributed.
Moo Deng attracts attention On July 4, 2025, the newly launched Moo Deng attracted market attention, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $302 million. Its connection with Solana, unique brand image, and speculative nature in the early stage are all part of its appeal.
Arctic Pablo Coin Pre-sale Is Booming 2025-07-04 Arctic Pablo Coin(APC) offers a staking reward with an annualized yield of 66% during the presale period, attracting a large number of investors. The presale has raised $2.83 million, with a potential return on investment of up to 420 times before listing.
Dogecoin Soars Again On July 4, 2025, the price of Dogecoin is currently $0.173642, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1.31 billion. This original meme coin has once again sparked a market frenzy.
Altcoin Season Index Rebounds 2025-07-03 Altcoin Season Index ( currently reports 25, indicating that about 25 projects among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin.
5. Global Policies
The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry based on news from June 27 to July 4, 2025, along with an analysis and summary of their impact on the industry and the market.
Cryptocurrency Policy of the United States Government
) 1. The Trump administration supports cryptocurrency
According to reports, the Trump administration holds a positive attitude towards cryptocurrency and has pledged to make significant contributions to the crypto industry. Both the Treasury Secretary and the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission ###SEC( nominated by Trump are supporters of cryptocurrency. This policy shift marks the impending "golden age" of the U.S. government's approach to the cryptocurrency market.
Impact on the Industry:
) 2. The U.S. House of Representatives will review multiple cryptocurrency bills
The leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives has announced that the week of July 14 will be designated as "Crypto Week", during which three important cryptocurrency bills will be reviewed: the GENIUS stablecoin bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, and a bill regarding Central Bank Digital Currency ### CBDC (.
Impact on the Industry:
) 3. The Securities and Exchange Commission Releases Compliance Guidelines for Crypto ETPs
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ### SEC ( has released comprehensive guidelines for issuers of Exchange-Traded Products ) ETP ( for cryptocurrency exchanges, outlining stringent information disclosure standards.
Impact on the industry:
Policy Dynamics in Other Countries and Regions
) 1. The Central Bank of Russia Excludes Cryptocurrency Investments
The Central Bank of Russia has announced that it will not invest in cryptocurrencies and considers them to be risky and unstable assets. The bank's governor stated that the Central Bank of Russia opposes the use of cryptocurrencies in domestic payments.
Impact on the industry:
Summary
From June 27 to July 4, 2025, multiple new policies and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry were introduced globally. Among these, the supportive stance and legislative trends of the U.S. government received significant attention, promising to create a favorable environment for industry development. At the same time, the compliance guidelines from the Securities and Exchange Commission will also promote the development of compliant cryptocurrency products. Meanwhile, the cautious stance of the Central Bank of Russia reflects the differing approaches to cryptocurrency among various countries. Overall, the policy dynamics during this period reflect the ongoing evolution of global cryptocurrency regulation, with the industry undergoing a more standardized and transparent development process.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendations
Market trends indicate that the cryptocurrency industry is recovering. With clearer regulatory policies and an influx of institutional investors, investor confidence is being restored. Hot news includes President Trump's supportive remarks on Bitcoin, Ripple's application for a banking license, and the surge in trading volume within the Sui ecosystem.
![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-9aee3c68b0-153d09-7649e1.webp(
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-56a85ec455-153d09-7649e1.webp(
Disclaimer: These suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investment carries risks, please make decisions cautiously.
) 6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Treasure
Yubi Bao helps match users with idle assets to those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yubi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing demand at each full hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour. However, if the loan fails due to a set rate being too high or if users redeem their funds before the full hour's determination, they will not receive interest.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized return rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.
![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-b66bd8f8b1-153d09-7649e1.webp(
Wealth Management Treasure
Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center established by Gate, including current, fixed-term, and all other wealth management plans, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products in multiple categories.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-29bba3dc01-153d09-7649e1.webp(
Structured Financial Products
Gate structured financial management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset's price during the investment period with a specified reference price, and it can be divided into two types: capital-preserving and aggressive.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-81d98d7bfc-153d09-7649e1.webp(
4. Market Interest Rate
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-68a6208873-153d09-7649e1.webp(
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market may carry high risks, and investment should be approached with caution.
) 6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Band Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. According to the Bollinger Bands trading strategy, when the ETH price approaches or breaks the upper band, a selling action is taken with a position of 20%; when the ETH price approaches or breaks the lower band, a buying action is taken with a position of 20%. The initial capital is 100,000 USDT.
Backtesting Results
Backtesting the historical data of ETH according to this trading strategy, the backtesting time range is from January 1, 2023, to June 30, 2025. The backtesting results are as follows:
Data Analysis
Summary of Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy performed reasonably well during the backtesting period, but due to high volatility and trading frequency, more caution is needed in actual operations. Investors can make appropriate adjustments and optimizations based on their own risk preferences.