Bitcoin KOL warns: The big pump of Ethereum is actually the rotation arbitrage of BTC holders, and the selling pressure at new highs may lead to a "holder's trap".

Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow pointed out that the recent big pump of Ethereum is actually due to the funds rotation of Bitcoin holders, whose aim is to profit after pumping ETH through a new narrative and then return to BTC. He warned that when ETH approaches its historical high, it will face huge sell pressure, forming a "holder's dilemma." This statement comes as Ethereum breaks through 4303 USD, creating a new closing high in 21 months, and Vitalik Buterin also issued a risk warning regarding the leverage of institutional ETH holdings.

( Rotation Arbitrage Theory: The BTC Players Behind the Rise of ETH ) Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow raised a warning, suggesting that Ethereum (ETH) recent big pump may be brewing a trend reversal, and ultimately funds will flow back to Bitcoin (BTC).

Core Viewpoint:

• Mow claims that the current rise of ETH is driven by BTC holders rotating funds into Ethereum, with plans to transfer profits back to Bitcoin.
• He warned that ETH will face strong sell pressure near its historical high (ATH).
• Other analysts believe that ETH will be the first to break its historical record, which may trigger an altcoin season, after which funds will flow back to BTC.

At the time of this statement, Ethereum reached $4303 on Sunday, with a weekly rise of 21%, setting the highest weekly closing price since November 2021.

( holder dilemma: new high curse and psychological game ) The CEO of Jan3, Mow, claims that many long-term ETH holders, especially early insiders from the ICO era, already hold a large amount of Bitcoin.

Analysis of Mow's Rotation Logic: According to their analysis, these investors are rotating BTC into ETH, using the "new narrative" (such as the rise of Ethereum treasury companies) to pump up the ETH price. Once the price has risen sufficiently, they will sell ETH, causing the "new generation of holders" to be trapped, and convert the profits back to Bitcoin. Mow asserts: "In the long run, no one really wants ETH."

He also warned that it may be "extremely challenging" for Ethereum to break through its previous historical high, as the closer it gets to this psychological barrier, the stronger the selling motivation becomes. He referred to this phenomenon as the "Bagholder’s Dilemma."

TradingView shows that the current ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.036, which has doubled from the April low of 0.018.

( Market Divergence: The Game Between Bulls and Cycle Theorists ) Not everyone agrees with Mow's views. Ethereum supporter Anthony Sassano dismissed his remarks as rhetoric from "old-school Bitcoin extremists" and claimed that this is actually a bullish signal for ETH.

Investor Ted Pillows proposed a more traditional cycle forecast: ETH is expected to be the first to break through its historical high, triggering a brief altcoin season, after which funds will rotate back to Bitcoin (target $140,000), ultimately flowing back to ETH and other altcoins. This cycle-based rotation pattern has been common in past bull markets, with Ethereum and altcoins typically starting independent upward trends after Bitcoin peaks.

Supporting this trend is the fact that since late June, Bitcoin Dominance has decreased by 10%, indicating that traders are shifting towards alternative crypto assets.

(Vitalik warns: The leveraged hidden risks of institutional Holdings) Despite the support of institutional capital inflows and companies holding ETH reserves during this round of Ethereum's rise, Vitalik Buterin has issued a risk warning about this trend.

In a recent interview, he warned that excessive use of leverage in the ETH treasury could pose long-term risks: "If you wake me up in three years and tell me that the treasury caused the collapse of Ether... my guess is that they (the institutions) somehow turned it into an overly leveraged game."

Last week, BitMine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, increased its holdings by 208,137 ETH, bringing its total crypto asset reserves to 833,137 ETH (currently valued at over $3 billion). This move not only solidified BitMine's position as the largest Ethereum holdings treasury company but also placed it fourth among global crypto asset holding institutions.

(Conclusion) Samson Mow's rotation arbitrage theory reveals the operational logic of major funds in the crypto market, and his warning about the 'holder's dilemma' casts a shadow over ETH's attempt to hit historical highs. Market opinions show a clear divide: Ethereum believers see it as FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), while cycle theorists look forward to the classic rotation script unfolding. Vitalik Buterin's warning about institutional ETH holdings being leveraged further highlights the systemic risks lurking behind the big pump. As Bitcoin's dominance continues to weaken and funds flow into alternative assets, whether ETH can break through the historical high curse will become a touchstone for testing the market's true strength. Investors need to be wary of whales using new narratives to pump and sell, while also paying attention to the leverage risk exposure of institutional holdings.